There’s a rule I’ve learned after several years of playing fantasy sports – It’s never too early to begin planning for you next draft. As the NFL’s regular season draws to a close, it’s time to reflect back on the year that was. The wins, the beats, each brilliant last minute call and every game-time decision gone wrong – all of them providing the careful owner with one manner of lesson or another.

But perhaps the most important pieces of information, the data that can make or break your next season before the first snap, come not from yourself but from your opponents. Who did they play, when did they go to them, and how soon were they willing to send a struggling player to the bench? All of these things can coalesce into a competitive scouting report.

When could this information possibly come into play, you may ask. The answer is simple – Draft Day 2010.

By knowing how the other participants in your league think, you’ll be able to better understand who they’ll spring for once they’re on the clock. This will allow the skillfull owner to make smarter picks by avoiding players who may be drafted above their true worth, while tucking away some real difference-makers for later rounds.

Here are a few players who may go much higher than they should. These are picks best left to the opposition.

Overvalued

Chris Johnson (RB, Titans)
Don’t get me wrong, Johnson is a great player. But are you really convinced that he’s not a one-year wonder? The wise owner may want to think long term and let this pick slip by for one more year. I’m not saying he’s not a first round pick in 2010. I’m just saying he shouldn’t be your first pick. If, by some miracle, he’s still available in the second round, don’t hesitate to snap him up.
Will Go: Top Three – Should Go:Late 1st, Early 2nd

Miles Austin (WR, Cowboys)
Miles Austin is a bigtime fantasy threat, and is certainly deserving of a spot on your roster. Just not in the first round. You may want to alter your expectations depending on his performance in the playoffs, but I just don’t see him being worth more than an early fifth (or late fourth) round pick. Know who you’re playing against, and what their team loyalties are. Don’t be surprised if a Cowboys fan snaps him up in the second round.
Will Go: Late 3rd, Early 4th – Should Go: Late 4th, Early 5th

Cedric Benson (RB, Bengals)
Congratulations to Benson for getting his career back on track. He’s coming off an amazing campaign in 2009, with 1,251 rushing yards (a career high) and six touchdowns. I’ll be the first to admit I didn’t see this coming, but I’d still advise fantasy owners to approach this tiger with a little caution. He may turn out to be an excellent compliment to your featured back. But he shouldn’t be the premier rusher on your squad.
Will Go: Mid 3rd, Early 4th – Should Go: 5th Round

Got all that? If you’re looking for some steals in the later rounds, here are a few players who may slip under the radar of some less-experienced fantasy owners.

Bargains

Ryan Grant (RB, Packers)
Due in large part to the ridiculous fantasy numbers put up by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Grant’s contributions to the Green Bay scoring machine have been largely overlooked. Don’t be surprised if you can get this 1,200-plus yard back as late as the fifth round. As long as opposing defenses have to worry about the Rodgers-Jennings-Driver-Finley aerial assault, Grant should have plenty of room to run.

DeSean Jackson (WR, Eagles)
All right, so he may not exactly come as a steal. I managed to snag Jackson in the eighth round of the 2009 draft and he turned out to be an amazing bargain. I’d had my eye on him since the end of Philly’s 2008 campaign, and my patience paid off. New fantasy owners or those drawn by big names may yet be slow to wise up on Jackson, so play your cards close to the vest. If you’re lucky, you may be able to reel him in somewhere below the fifth round.

Vincent Jackson (WR, Chargers)
See the above Jackson.

Robert Meacham (WR, Saints)
Robert Meacham will be this year’s DeSean Jackson. Let the opposition fawn over Marques Colston. Be smart, and pick up Meacham near Round Eight.

Vernon Davis (TE, 49ers)
Dallas Clark, Owen Daniels, Antonio Gates – These are names your fantasy opponents will know, and many of them will be drafted ahead of Davis. If you need a tight end near Round Seven, you could do a lot worse than Vernon, who’s coming off a career year with the Niners.

- Taylor Maxwell

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